This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – October 8th, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish sentiment decreased, while neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment increased, leaving neutral responses as the largest group.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 45.0 percentage points to 30.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 27.5 percentage points to 40.0%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 17.5 percentage points to 30.0%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
At the sector level, bullish sentiment increased in one of eight sectors and decreased in seven of eight sectors. Neutral sentiment increased in three of eight sectors and decreased in five of eight sectors. Bearish sentiment increased in seven of eight sectors and decreased in one of eight sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector and industrials (both at 45.5%), followed by energy (36.4%) and health care (27.3%). The level of optimism is lowest for real estate (0.0%), followed by consumer discretionary, financials, and IT (all at 18.2%) and health care (27.3%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for health care and financials (both at 54.5%), followed by primary sector and real estate (both at 45.5%) and energy, consumer discretionary, and IT (all at 36.4%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for industrials (27.3%), followed by energy, consumer discretionary, and IT (all at 36.4%) and primary sector and real estate (both at 45.5%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for real estate (54.5%), followed by consumer discretionary and IT (both at 45.5%) and energy, industrials, and financials (all at 27.3%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector (9.1%), followed by health care (18.2%) and energy, industrials, and financials (all at 27.3%).
International sentiment
For Australian stocks, bullish sentiment and neutral sentiment decreased, while bearish sentiment increased. For U.S. stocks, neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment decreased, while bullish sentiment increased. The two markets diverged in at least one sentiment category.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 10.2 percentage points to 27.3% for Australian stocks and increased by 11.4 percentage points to 36.4% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 45.5% for Australian stocks and decreased by 10.2 percentage points to 27.3% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 14.8 percentage points to 27.3% for Australian stocks and decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.4% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If investors were to purchase equity, the proportions of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares, anticipating no change in their equity allocation, and expressing uncertainty about their equity allocation increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in large cap shares and funds decreased compared to last week.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares increased by 27.3 percentage points to 27.3% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares decreased by 12.5 percentage points to 0.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds decreased by 44.3 percentage points to 18.2% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 20.5 percentage points to 45.5% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 9.1 percentage points to 9.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.