This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – January 21th, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral and bearish increased.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 26.7 percentage points to 60.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 6.7 percentage points to 20.0%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 20.0 percentage points to 20.0%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bullish decreases for most sectors, while neutral and bearish increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for real estate and financials (both at 53.9%), followed by health care and industrials (both at 50.0%). The level of optimism is lowest for energy and consumer discretionary (both at 30.8%), followed by primary sector (38.5%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for energy (69.2%), followed by consumer discretionary (61.5%) and IT (53.9%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for real estate (30.8%), followed by financials (38.5%) and industrials (41.7%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for primary sector and real estate (both at 15.4%), followed by health care and industrials (both at 41.7%). Pessimism is lowest for IT and energy (both at 0.0%), followed by financials and consumer discretionary (both at 7.7%).
International sentiment
Bullish and neutral regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market decreased. Simultaneously, bearish increased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the opposite except for neutral.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 71.4% for Australian stocks and increased by 10.4 percentage points to 64.3% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 15.9% at 7.1% for Australian stocks and decreased by 9.3 percentage points to 21.4% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 21.4 percentage points to 21.4% for Australian stocks and decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 14.3% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in large cap shares, nothing or uncertain about their future investment allocation, increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in small cap shares or funds, decreased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 12.4 percentage points to 14.3% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 15.7 percentage points to 35.7% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 7.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 15.7 percentage points to 35.7% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 0.5 percentage points to 7.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.